WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve will meet this week ahead of a looming leadership transition that remains fuzzy, and Wednesday's news conference will be closely watched for any clarification.
Also Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on whether to confirm President Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The committee is expected to approve Warsh, sending his nomination to the full Senate.
At a news conference later that afternoon, Powell may indicate whether he will remain on the Fed's board of governors after his term as chair ends May 15. Powell serves a separate term as a governor that lasts until January 2028. Chairs typically leave the board when their leadership terms end, but Powell has signaled he could stay on. It would be the first time a former chair remained on the board since 1948.
If Powell, who has made protecting Fed independence a key part of his legacy, chooses to stay, he would deprive Trump of the opportunity to pick his replacement and fill another seat on the Fed's seven-member board. Three of the seven current governors are Trump appointees. At the same time, it could worsen tensions with the Trump administration and would create what some analysts refer to as a “two Popes” scenario, with a chair and former chair both on the Fed's board, which could increase divisions among policymakers.
At the same time, it might not affect the trajectory of interest rates much. Powell has generally supported reducing interest rates and would likely do so again once a spike in inflation, stemming from the Iran war's increase in gas prices, fades.
Warsh argued for rate cuts last year, but is unlikely to be able to reduce rates anytime soon, given that most policymakers have signaled they would prefer to wait and evaluate the war's impact on the economy.
Warsh's path to the chair was cleared Sunday when Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, said he would support him. Tillis had said he would block Warsh's nomination until a Justice Department investigation into Powell was dropped. On Friday, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, said she was closing the investigation.
Powell said at a news conference in March that he wouldn't leave the Fed's board until the Trump administration's investigation was dropped, "with transparency and finality." Pirro said her office could reopen the investigation if "the facts warrant doing so." In addition, the Justice Department has said it would appeal a court ruling that threw out subpoenas it issued in its Fed investigation.
But on Sunday, Tillis said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he had been assured the appeal was just to challenge the principle behind the ruling, rather than to continue the investigation. Justice Department officials also said the investigation would only reopen if an ongoing probe by the Fed’s inspector general found evidence of criminal conduct.
“We worked a lot over the weekend to make sure that we were very clear that we had the assurances from the DOJ that I needed to feel like they were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed,” Tillis said.
Tillis even suggested, however, that Powell could remain on the board for some time after May 15: “I suspect Mr. Powell wants to see what happens with the appeal and to make sure that it is fully settled,” Tillis said on Sunday.
On Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked if Trump would oppose Powell remaining on the Fed board. She responded, “I think the president will be satisfied once Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the Fed chair," suggesting he wouldn't seek to fire Powell, as he has previously threatened.
Powell, meanwhile, said last month that even if the investigation was dropped he wouldn’t necessarily leave the board.
“I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” Powell said.
The leadership turmoil comes while the economy remains unusually murky, putting the Fed in an difficult spot. Inflation has jumped to 3.3%, a two-year high, as the Iran war has sharply raised gas prices. That makes it harder for the central bank to reduce rates. The Fed typically leaves rates unchanged, or even raises them, if inflation is worsening. Fed policymakers are nearly certain to leave their key rate unchanged at about 3.6% on Wednesday.
At the same time, the unemployment rate declined in March and the number of people seeking unemployment benefits remains low, evidence that the job market may be stabilizing after signs of weakness earlier this year. Stable hiring would lessen the urgency for any rate cuts, which the Fed usually implements to boost borrowing, spending and job gains.
In a notable shift earlier this month, Christopher Waller, a key member of the Fed's board, voiced concerns that rising inflation could mean the Fed would have to stand pat this week. He also suggested that with the unemployment rate a still-low 4.3%, rate cuts might not be necessary anytime soon. Waller had dissented in favor of a rate cut in January.
A key change economists will look for is whether the Fed alters the statement it issues after each meeting to signal that it is possible that their next move could be either a rate cut or a hike. Right now, the statement indicates that any change to its key rate would be a cut. According to minutes of its last meeting in March, many of the 19 participants on the Fed's rate-setting committee support considering a hike, but it's unlikely to be a majority.
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